We have identified two key drivers which we believe will determine the recovery of the Region:
1. The strength of external demand:
- The U.S. stimulus package (USD1,9+ trillion) should help the Region somehow, especially those countries with the closest ties to the U.S. primarily Mexico It will also help Colombia because of its close trade relationship with the U.S. as well.
A global reflation trade in 2022 supported by USD30+ trillion in global stimulus should also be an incentive for the Region.
- The continued economic growth of China will increase the demand for commodities and is where the Region relies on for most of its exports. It is a main driver for the recovery of countries such as Brazil, Peru and Chile.
2. The speed of domestic economic reopening:
- This largely depends on the vaccination process and how fast the majority of the population will have access to the vaccine.
Sectors that we like……….
Materials, consumer discretionary and financials.
We believe that the local equity markets should continue to benefit from a global reflation trade and a rotation from growth to value stocks in 2021. Higher energy prices resulting from this global reflation trade should support economic activity and limit the further use of public sector fiscal policy.
Our preferred stocks to watch given the factors mentioned are:
- Brazil: Vale, Petrobras, Gerdau, Itau, Bradesco, Banco Santander Brasil.
- Mexico: Gentera y Femsa.
- Colombia: Bancolombia.
- Peru: Credicorp, Cementos Pacasmayo.
- Chile: Sociedad Química y Minera.
- View our current top 10 holdings.
Historically, Latin America has outperformed in terms of growth when commodity prices rise. We generally have a different economic situation with several factors which can have a different impact. Nevertheless, persistently high commodity prices should at the very least relax budgetary constraints around the Region.